The Ultimate Mayoral Battle Royale

In 2017, three candidates emerged for mayor and triggered the May primary: John Cranley, Yvette Simpson and Rob Richardson. Turnout was abysmal with only 23,698 Cincinnatians casting votes. For those keeping track at home, that means only 11% of registered voters in the City of Cincinnati cared enough to vote in our city’s last Mayoral Primary. In large part due to an energized core of supporters, Simpson walked away as the top vote getter with 10,702 (45%) votes, while Cranley finished second with 8,150 votes (34%) and Rob Richardson brought up the rear with 4,846 (20%). What we can learn from the 2017 mayoral primary is that a candidate with an energized base will finish first in the primary, but that momentum doesn’t necessarily carry over into the general election. Cranley ended up restructuring his campaign team and strategy and was able to win by attracting quite a diverse coalition of voters that included Republicans, Democrats and Independents. Simpson came fairly close with 46% of the vote opposed to Cranley’s 53%, but the Republicans and Independents put Cranley over the top.

Fast forward to 2021 and eight individuals have filed petitions with the Hamilton County Board of Elections to run for mayor of our fair city that has recently been plagued by a wave of corruption. It’s quite a large field for a mayoral primary, but I’ll do my best to break down where the candidate’s fates most likely lay when May 4th comes:

Cincinnati Mayoral Candidate Aftab Pureval filing his petitions at the Hamilton County Board of Elections.

Tier One

· Aftab Pureval (Clifton): You may know him as the Hamilton County Clerk of Courts and former Congressional Candidate. He upended county government when he shocked the world and beat Tracy Winkler in 2016 and he’s never looked back since. When you talk about having a strong and energized base, there will be no candidate that has as much fanfare as Aftab Pureval.

· David Mann (Clifton): At the ripe age of 81 years old, you are probably well aware of the political mainstay known as David Mann. He’s done it all, quite literally; he’s served as our city’s Mayor, he’s served as a City Councilmember and he’s even served in Congress. He’ll pull the same Republican, Independent and Democratic mix that put Cranley into the Mayor’s office. This probably isn’t a group that is well-coordinated or too motivated when it comes to voting in a May primary.

· Cecil Thomas (North Avondale): Cecil is another long-time veteran of Cincinnati politics and service to our city. He served as a police officer for 27 years for the City of Cincinnati and then was elected to City Council circa 2005 where he served for 8 years. He’s also currently serving as an Ohio State Senator in Columbus where he represents parts of Cincinnati. He is term limited and looking for his next political move. He resides in North Avondale and I suspect he’d pull quite a bit of support from those neighborhoods that he’s represented in the State Senate for the past several years. But with city elections suffering from abysmal voter turnout, will he be able to rally his supporters to show up to the polls?

Promotional material for Raffel Prophett for Mayor

Tier Two

· Raffel Prophett (Avondale): He’s a former City of Cincinnati firefighter who also served in the US Army in Iraq and Afghanistan. He has quite a list of impressive achievements, but his name recognition is low. He’s a dark horse candidate for sure, but he may have been better served running for City Council.

· Herman Najoli (West Price Hill): Originally from Kenya, Najoli is masterful at gathering signatures; he was one of the first candidates to be certified for the mayoral primary. This isn’t his first run for public office. In 2018, he attempted to run as an independent for the Hamilton County Commission, but he fell short of the required valid signatures. When you run as an Independent for county office, you’re required to collect thousands of signatures. In 2020, he prevailed at collecting thousands of valid signatures and he was on the ballot for County Commissioner as an Independent. He only garnered 4% of the total vote in Hamilton County, but he sure is a hustler. I’d put his work ethic up against anybody’s.

· Gavi Begtrup (Mt. Lookout):  According to The Enquirer, he’s a scientist and a start-up founder. He went to college at age 14 and has two physics' degrees. If I am being honest, I do not know a ton about Gavi Begtrup. However, I heard he has some people on staff who previously worked for Jon Ossoff, the newly elected Democratic Senator from Georgia. I’ve also heard he raised a boat load of money, but will need to confirm that in the near future via the campaign finance reports.

Cincinnati Mayoral Candidate Herman Najoli vows to only serve one-term if elected.

Prediction:  Full disclosure, I’m all in for Aftab. I worked alongside Aftab in 2018 when he ran for Congress and I ran for the State House. He and I worked closely together on Cincinnati’s west side and fought the good fight spreading the Democratic Party gospel to the vast conservative masses that occupy places like Green and Delhi Townships. I was always impressed with his work ethic and organization skills since he entered politics in 2016. In the end, the dysfunction and corruption that has plagued City Hall has to come to an end. Aftab has a history of reform at the Clerk’s Office and he’s saved the tax payer money by modernizing the archaic filing system. If I were a betting man, I predict we’ll see an Aftab and David Mann matchup for the general election. Two Clifton residents squaring off to be our city’s top dog. But don’t count out Cecil Thomas who has a long history of serving the city and its residents.

Clayton Adams and Aftab Pureval together in 2018 at Legend’s in Cheviot, Ohio.